Joy ShikwatiRaila Odinga’s unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship has sparked speculation about his imminent return to the helm of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). His comeback is expected to bring much-needed leadership and stability to the party, which has been grappling with internal wrangles and political realignments ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Raila’s Temporary Exit and Nyong’o’s Interim Leadership
On October 12, 2024, Raila Odinga formally handed over the ODM leadership to Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o, appointing him as the acting party leader. This move allowed Raila to focus on the final stages of his AUC campaign. At the time, Raila expressed confidence in Nyong’o’s ability to maintain the party’s ideological continuity, citing his long-standing role in shaping ODM’s direction since its inception.
Raila had assured party members that even if he won the AUC position, he would remain available for consultations. However, his loss has now paved the way for his return to active politics, a move that could stabilize the party amid growing internal divisions.
Internal Rifts and Leadership Struggles
Raila’s absence has exposed deep-seated rifts within ODM, with party leaders jostling for influence and positioning themselves for leadership roles. The party has also been embroiled in debates over its relationship with the Kenya Kwanza government, particularly after some ODM leaders joined the broad-based administration.
Key party figures, including Siaya Governor James Orengo, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, and ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, have clashed over the party’s stance toward the government. While Orengo has warned against losing ODM’s identity, Wanga has cautioned against attacking the government, where some ODM-affiliated leaders currently serve.
The Identity Crisis: To Oppose or Collaborate?
The internal debate centers on whether ODM should continue criticizing the government or adopt a more collaborative approach. Orengo has been vocal about preserving the party’s identity, arguing that compromising its principles for short-term gains could have long-term consequences.
On the other hand, Wanga has emphasized the need for pragmatism, noting that ODM leaders serving in the government should not be undermined. She likened the situation to setting fire to a house where your child resides, stressing that the party must strike a balance between maintaining its independence and supporting its members in government.
Meanwhile, Sifuna has accused some party members of abandoning ODM’s core principles, particularly their reluctance to hold the Kenya Kwanza government accountable. His remarks have sparked controversy, with critics questioning whether his views reflect the party’s official position.
Raila’s Return: A Stabilizing Force
Raila Odinga’s anticipated return to ODM leadership is expected to address these internal conflicts and provide clarity on the party’s direction. His experience and influence could help reconcile the differing factions and restore unity within the party.
Moreover, his comeback would signal ODM’s readiness to position itself as a formidable force ahead of the 2027 elections. As political realignments take shape, Raila’s leadership could be pivotal in consolidating the party’s base and reasserting its role in Kenya’s political landscape. Raila Odinga’s return to ODM leadership is not just a political necessity but a strategic move to stabilize the party and prepare for the 2027 elections.
With internal rifts threatening to undermine the party’s cohesion, his leadership could provide the much-needed direction and unity to navigate the challenges ahead. As ODM grapples with its identity and relationship with the government, Raila’s comeback may well determine the party’s future trajectory.
