Augustine MuthuriWednesday’s Champions League play-off second legs offer another chance to outsmart the bookmakers. The marquee matchup? Real Madrid’s highly anticipated clash with Manchester City at the Santiago Bernabéu. Let’s analyze all four fixtures and examine the average odds from top online betting sites for each tie. Please note these odds are an average of top online betting sites and do not belong to a specific betting site.
Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting
Dortmund enters Wednesday’s game with a commanding lead after their 3-0 away victory against Sporting. Unsurprisingly, they are heavily favored to qualify, with average odds of 1/500. The bookmakers consider this tie all but settled. Will we witness a more balanced game due to heavy squad rotation, or a predictable, low-stakes affair? Betting on a high-scoring match might seem tempting, but the average odds for over 2.5 goals (8/13) aren’t particularly appealing.
A more intriguing option might be exploring individual player markets. Sporting’s sought-after striker, Viktor Gyökeres, will undoubtedly be eager to impress potential summer suitors on this grand stage. Backing him to register a couple of shots on target against a vulnerable defense seems reasonable, with average odds of 13/10.
PSV Eindhoven vs Juventus
The sense of a closely contested match is reflected in the betting markets. PSV is priced at 6/5 to win on the night, while Juventus sits at 6/4. The gap widens when considering qualification, with the hosts at 21/10 and the visitors strong favorites at 4/11.
Whether Peter Bosz’s team can maintain their impressive home form or succumb to Juventus’s renowned European pedigree remains uncertain. Those using Juventus’s 1-0 victory over Inter in Serie A as an indicator of their strength should be cautious. Juventus conceded 1.8 expected goals (xG) – a metric measuring the quality of chances created and predicting scoring conversion – and were somewhat fortunate to emerge victorious.
A safer bet might be on goals. Both teams appear likely to score (4/7), and the over 2.5 goal mark (4/6) could also be reached.
Real Madrid vs Manchester City
With a 3-2 lead from the first leg in Manchester, Real Madrid holds a significant advantage. The pressure is on Manchester City to reverse the situation. Real Madrid’s tactics will likely revolve around absorbing pressure and exploiting City on the counter-attack, a strategy that players like Kylian Mbappé will relish. The bookmakers believe Pep Guardiola faces a difficult task, with Madrid priced at 1/7 to qualify. Goals are expected, with the over 2.5 market at 2/7 and over 3.5 at 5/6. These odds aren’t particularly enticing individually, but combining them might offer some value.
Given the anticipated game flow, Real Madrid winning on the night while conceding a goal to Erling Haaland and his teammates is a plausible scenario. This outcome is priced at a more attractive 17/10.
The Bet: Real Madrid to win and both teams to score (17/10).
Paris Saint-Germain vs Brest
If the Dortmund vs Sporting tie feels like a formality, the contest between PSG and Brest appears even more so. Brest faces the daunting task of playing the reigning French champions for the third time this month, having already lost 5-2 in the league and 3-0 in the first leg of this Champions League tie. Brest is considered a long shot to qualify, with average odds of 200/1, highlighting the lack of belief in their chances.
Therefore, the goal-scoring markets might be the most promising avenue for betting. Backing Ousmane Dembélé to score at 8/11 is a possibility, but with a crucial domestic game against Lyon on the horizon, manager Luis Enrique’s starting XI remains uncertain.
Another strategy could be betting on a PSG win with a limited number of goals. Given their dominant position, PSG might play with less intensity, potentially affecting their scoring output.
The Bet: PSG to win and under 3.5 goals (6/4).
